Protect Your A$$ets...

Why The Wall Street Retirement Plan Is Risky, Unreliable & Uncertain...

2012-01-27T10:39:00.000-08:00

GDP Per Capita Remains in the Top 5% in the World...

2012-01-26T09:44:00.000-08:00

Of 227 countries and territories ranked by the CIA World Factbook, U.S. GDP per capita remains in the top 5%, behind natural resource heavy waits like Qatar and the U.A.E.

U.S. GDP per capita currently stands at $47,200.

In this chart from the St. Louis Fed, the rate has increased steadily since the 1960s, even after recessions have taken some bite from it. Already in 2010 and 2011, GDP per capita has re-accelerated as the overall economy begins growing.

Government Health-Care Spending Is The Real U.S. Debt & Deficit Driver...

2012-01-25T08:51:00.000-08:00

The key to reducing the federal debt is getting health-care spending under control.

7 Reasons Why "Bank On Yourself" Is A Superior Retirement Plan Alternative...

2012-01-24T11:58:00.000-08:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2012-01-23T10:21:00.000-08:00

On Friday, January 20, the S&P 500 closed @ 1315, and that was...

    +4.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1255.
    +4.8% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1255.
    +5.2% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1250.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BULLISH and the LONG-Term trend is BULLISH.

Why Banks Still Don't Trust Each Other...

2012-01-20T08:48:00.000-08:00

The TED Spread charts the difference between what they feel are “risk-free” T-bills and LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate), which is the perceived credit risk in lending to commercial banks.

When the TED Spread rises, banks start to lose trust in one another, because they feel that another bank could default.

Secrets To A Stress-Free Retirement Plan!

2012-01-19T15:07:00.000-08:00

Why Conventional Financial Planning Doesn't Work!

2012-01-18T11:40:00.000-08:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2012-01-17T07:52:00.000-08:00

On Friday, January 13, the S&P 500 closed @ 1289, and that was...

    +3.0% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1251.
    +2.7% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1255.
    +3.5% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1245.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS POSITIVE and the LONG-Term trend is POSITIVE.

Obamanomics: Not Spreading The Wealth...

2012-01-13T09:58:00.000-08:00

Follow In Walt Disney's Footsteps: Become Your Own Lending Source & Bank On Yourself!

2012-01-12T06:31:00.000-08:00

Intrade Risk of U.S. Recession Falls To Only 25%, Down From 50% Last Fall...

2012-01-11T08:33:00.000-08:00

Quote of The Day: Higher Taxes Ahead...

2012-01-10T15:07:00.000-08:00

“One way or another, whether we end up with a Republican or a Democrat as the next president, it would appear that taxes are going up, because the tax issue is not going away.”

- Stanley Smiley, Senior VP of Advanced Planning at Cetera Financial Group, which has $82.5 billion under advisement.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2012-01-09T11:14:00.000-08:00

On Friday, January 6, the S&P 500 closed @ 1278, and that was...

    +2.3% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1249.
    +1.7% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1256.
    +3.0% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1241.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

Chart of The Day: Rising Rail Carloads Indicate A Reduced Risk of Recession...

2012-01-06T07:14:00.000-08:00

Hedge Fund Bridgewater Associates Takes Grim 2012 View

2012-01-05T12:21:00.000-08:00

Hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest if not the largest pure hedge fund, put up a +25% positive return last year.

Bridgewater has a grim 2012 outlook for the global economy, citing slow growth, a debt overhang, solvency issues and high unemployment for the world’s developed economies.

“What you have is a picture of broken economic systems that are operating on life support,” said Robert Prince, co-chief investment officer.

In December, Consumer Confidence Rose To It's Highest Level Since April 2011

2012-01-04T08:52:00.000-08:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2012-01-03T08:23:00.000-08:00

On Friday, December 30, the S&P 500 closed @ 1258, and that was...

    +1.1% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1244.
    +0.0% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1257.
    +1.3% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1242.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

A Lost Decade for American Household Income...

2011-12-30T09:51:00.000-08:00

Most Americans Say $150,000 Annual Income Makes You Rich: Gallup

2011-12-29T12:10:00.000-08:00

It's not only 1 percenters that Americans consider rich.

More than half of those recently polled by Gallup said an income of no more than $150,000 would qualify that person as rich.

When asked how much money per year would be necessary for them to consider themselves "rich," 53% mentioned an income of $150,000 or less, and 71% said an income of $300,000 would be enough.

Wealth marketing firm HNW Inc. considers an income of more than $350,000 per year enough to push someone into the top 1%.

But they also say most one percenters aren't aware of their exceptional status.

Home Prices Still Falling: -3.4% Year-Over-Year...

2011-12-28T07:50:00.000-08:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-12-27T07:20:00.000-08:00

On Friday, December 23, the S&P 500 closed @ 1265, and that was...

    +1.6% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1245.
    +0.5% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1259.
    +2.0% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1240.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

Bullish Omen for The Stock Market: Regional Banks Breakout To New Rally High!

2011-12-23T08:40:00.001-08:00

The Ugly Truth About The Last 12 Years on Wall Street...

2011-12-22T07:08:00.000-08:00

A One-Day Hospital Stay Outpaces Inflation By Over 13 to 1...

2011-12-21T08:38:00.000-08:00

From 1985 to 2010, the average cost of one day in the hospital (semiprivate room, Midwestern city) rose +1,366%, an increase of +11.3% per year for 25 years.

Inflation in the country over the same 25 years is up +101% or an average of +2.8% per year.

Source: Department of Labor

More 25-34 Year Olds Living With Parents...

2011-12-20T08:24:00.000-08:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-12-19T07:37:00.000-08:00

On Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 closed @ 1220, and that was...

   -1.5% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1238.
   -3.1% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1259.
   -1.3% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1236.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

Jim Rogers: Another Financial Crisis Likely...

2011-12-16T09:14:00.000-08:00

The world is definitely going to face another financial crisis stemming from problems in Europe, Jim Rogers said recently.

"We're certainly going to have more crises coming out of Europe and America; the world is in trouble. The world has been spending staggering amounts of money that it doesn't have for a few decades now, and it's all coming home to roost," Rogers, CEO and chairman Rogers Holdings told CNBC.

He added that the crisis would be much worse than the one markets saw in 2008 because the debt is much higher now.

"Last time, America quadrupled its debt. The system is much more extended now, and America cannot quadruple its debt again. Greece cannot double its debt again. The next time around is going to be much worse," Rogers said.

"In 2002 it was bad, in 2008 it was worse and 2012 or 2013 is going to be worse still – be careful," he added.

Quote of The Day: Fear and Greed...

2011-12-15T08:35:00.000-08:00

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

- Warren Buffett

December: Historically, The Best Month of The Year...

2011-12-14T09:35:00.000-08:00

18 of the last 21 Decembers have produced a positive total return for the S&P 500.

The average December performance since 1990 is a gain of +2.1%, the best of any month.

Source: BTN Research

A Recession Occurs Once Every 6 Years, On Average...

2011-12-13T07:57:00.000-08:00

The U.S. has survived 13 recessions during the past 75 years, an average of one every 5.8 years.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-12-12T07:04:00.000-08:00

On Friday, December 9, the S&P 500 closed @ 1255, and that was...

   +1.0% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1243.
   -0.5% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1261.
   +2.1% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1229.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

19 Statistics About The Poor That Will Absolutely Astound You….

2011-12-09T07:51:00.000-08:00

1. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the percentage of “very poor” rose in 300 out of the 360 largest metropolitan areas during 2010.

2. Last year, 2.6 million more Americans descended into poverty. That was the largest increase that we have seen since the U.S. government began keeping statistics on this back in 1959.

3. It isn’t just the ranks of the “very poor” that are rising. The number of those just considered to be “poor” is rapidly increasing as well. Back in the year 2000, 11.3% of all Americans were living in poverty. Today, 15.1% of all Americans are living in poverty.

4. The poverty rate for children living in the United States increased to 22% in 2010.

5. There are 314 counties in the United States where at least 30% of the children are facing food insecurity.

6. In Washington D.C., the “child food insecurity rate” is 32.3%.

7. More than 20 million U.S. children rely on school meal programs to keep from going hungry.

8. One out of every 6 elderly Americans now lives below the federal poverty line.

9. Today, there are over 45 million Americans on food stamps.

10. According to the Wall Street Journal, nearly 15% of all Americans are now on food stamps.

11. In 2010, 42% of all single mothers in the United States were on food stamps.

12. The number of Americans on food stamps has increased +74% since 2007.

13. We are told that the economy is recovering, but the number of Americans on food stamps has grown by another +8% over the past year.

14. Right now, 1 out of every 4 American children is on food stamps.

15. It is being projected that approximately 50% of all U.S. children will be on food stamps at some point in their lives before they reach the age of 18.

16. More than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid. Back in 1965, only 1 out of every 50 Americans was on Medicaid. Today, approximately one out of every 6 Americans is on Medicaid.

17. One out of every 6 Americans is now enrolled in at least one government anti-poverty program.

18. The number of Americans that are going to food pantries and soup kitchens has increased by +46% since 2006.

19. It is estimated that up to half a million children may currently be homeless in the United States.

Public School Spending Up +375% With No Change in Test Scores...

2011-12-08T07:35:00.000-08:00

The graphic below is from Investor's Business Daily showing a +375% increase in public school spending over four decades, with no change in reading, math and science test scores.

Reason? A bloated, bureaucratic, unionized public school monopoly that is sheltered from competition.

Question: If President Obama is concerned about "price gouging" for prescription drugs, will he sign an Executive Order that will expose the public school monopoly to greater competition, and end the "taxpayer-gouging" that has increased the cost of public education by +375% with no change in educational outcomes?

Quote of The Day: Deceptive October Unemployment Report...

2011-12-07T07:31:00.000-08:00

"The generally positive commentary on the most recent jobs report by Alan Krueger, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, didn’t hide the fact that more than half the drop in the unemployment rate came from people giving up and leaving the labor force."

- New York Times

GDP Per Capita Is Still Lagging...

2011-12-06T10:22:00.000-08:00

America’s economy has got back to where it was before the recession began.

Americans have not.

In the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a +2.5% annual rate, finally putting it above its late 2007 level.

But with a growing U.S. population, GDP per capita is still -2.9% below its pre-recession peak.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-12-05T07:22:00.000-08:00

On Friday, December 2, the S&P 500 closed @ 1244, and that was...

   +0.2% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1242.
   -1.5%  BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1263.
   +2.2% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1217.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

The Social Security Taxable Wage Base for 2012...

2011-12-02T06:25:00.000-08:00

The Social Security taxable wage base will be $110,100 in 2012.

The wage base, defined as the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security taxes, was $32,400 in 1982.

Source: Social Security

New Home Sales Still Languishing...

2011-12-01T17:46:00.000-08:00

New home sales inched up last month. There were 307,000 new homes sold, at an annual rate, up from 303,000 in September.

With little new construction, the inventory of new homes remained at 162,000 — the lowest level on records going back to 1963.

At October’s sales pace, it would take a half year to exhaust that supply; in 2005, it would have taken less than two months.

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate Reaches 13-Year High...

2011-11-30T07:07:00.000-08:00

Unemployment is on the rise in Europe.

The jobless rate in the 17 countries using the euro rose to 10.2% in September from 10.1% in August, matching the 13-year high logged last year and further indicating that the financial crisis is weighing on jobs. Spain had the highest unemployment rate in the euro zone, clocking in at 22.6%. Austria’s, at 3.9%, was the lowest.

Bond Yields Suggest 60% Chance of Recession...

2011-11-29T08:09:00.000-08:00

The bond market indicator that has predicted every U.S. recession since 1970 shows that the economy has about a 60% chance of contracting within 12 months.

Short-term rates have been higher than longer-term yields, or inverted, before each of the 7 recessions since 1970.

“The adjusted curve is giving a powerful signal for an upcoming U.S. recession,” said Ruslan Bikbov, a fixed-income strategist in New York at Bank of America, one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Fed.

“If that happens, the Fed’s target rate could remain near zero beyond 2014,” more than a year longer than the central bank has indicated, he said in an interview on October 3rd.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-11-28T11:07:00.000-08:00

On Friday, November 25, the S&P 500 closed @ 1159, and that was...

   -6.0% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1233.
   -8.2% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1262.
   -4.4% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1212.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is BEARISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

You Think It's Bad in The USA? Be Thankful That You Don't Live in Spain...

2011-11-23T06:56:00.000-08:00

For Each Job Opening, Four Are Unemployed...

2011-11-22T07:49:00.000-08:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-11-21T08:10:00.000-08:00

On Friday, November 18, the S&P 500 closed @ 1216, and that was...

   -1.7% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1237.
   -4.2% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1269.
   +0.3% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1212.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

Chart of The Day: France vs Italy Government Bond Spreads Widen...

2011-11-18T10:27:00.000-08:00

Concerns over the ongoing European debt crisis continue to weigh on the markets.

For some perspective, today's chart compares the 10-year government bond yield of the 2nd (France) and 3rd largest (Italy) euro zone economies to that of the largest (Germany).

As today's chart illustrates, the crisis for these two relatively large economies really began to escalate in Q2 2011 and again in Q4 2011. Note how the French 10-year government bond spread really began to increase over the past couple months as the severity of the Italian situation began to approach extreme levels.

This is due in large part to the fact that French banks hold a great deal of Italian sovereign debt – and Italy has a great deal of debt outstanding (€1.9 trillion which equates to $2.6 trillion).

While there are clearly no good solutions to the crisis, one of the least bad solutions has the European Central Bank printing out significant amounts of euros in order to buy a significant amount of European debt.

Chart & Commentary Courtesy of Chart of The Day

The Lower The Capital Gains Tax, The Higher The Tax Revenue...

2011-11-16T09:54:00.000-08:00

The capital gains tax is NOT a tax on buying assets. It is a tax on selling assets. If you don't sell, there is no tax. And when the capital gains tax is high, very few people are willing to sell.

In 1977, when the capital gains tax was 39.9%, realized gains amounted to less than 1.57% of GDP. From 1987 to 1996, when the capital gains tax was 28%, realized gains rose to 2.3% of GDP. Since 28% of 2.3 is larger than 39.9% of 1.57, the lower tax rate clearly raised more tax revenue.

From 2004 to 2007, when the capital gains tax was 15%, realized gains amounted to 5.2% of GDP. Since 15% of 5.2 is larger than 28% of 2.3, the lower tax rate again raised more tax revenue.

The government cannot afford to raise this tax, particularly on those most likely to pay it.

Quote of The Day: Why Large Corporation Are Sitting on Cash...

2011-11-15T07:30:00.000-08:00

“Capital does not ask for raises. Capital does not unionize. Capital does not demand health care benefits.”

- UBS economist on why many large corporations are sitting on cash instead of hiring

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-11-14T11:32:00.000-08:00

On Friday, November 11, the S&P 500 closed @ 1264, and that was...

   +1.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1242.
   -0.5% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1274.
   +3.9% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1187.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is BULLISH and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

Quote of The Day: Euro-Zone Debt Deal Skepticism...

2011-11-11T05:25:00.000-08:00

“The weaknesses of Europe’s common currency area, ranging from its design to a persisting dearth of bank funding and anemic economic growth, weren’t properly addressed in this accord. It avoids an imminent catastrophe and means Greece should be able to meet its obligations in the near future, and it may restore a bit of confidence. But it won’t prevent the debt crisis overall from rambling on and indeed escalating.”

- Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff and Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics

Majority of Americans Concerned With Ability to Maintain a Comfortable Retirement...

2011-11-10T08:06:00.000-08:00

88% of 800 Americans surveyed indicated that they are concerned about their ability to maintain a comfortable standard of living throughout their retirement years, an increase from 73% that were concerned just 1 year ago.

Source: Americans for Secure Retirement

2011 Dalbar Study: Why The Average Equity Fund Investor Will ALWAYS Trail The Market...

2011-11-09T07:24:00.000-08:00

From December 31, 1990 to December 31, 2010, the S&P 500 gained +9.1% per year.

But the average equity fund investor has gained less than half of much, only +3.8%!

During the same period, the typical aggregate bond index gained +6.9% per year.

But the average fixed income investor has earned 7 times less!!!, only +1.0%!

BOTTOM LINE:

1. Sadly, over the past 2 decades, investors haven't built any real wealth during neither the past 10 years nor the past 20 years. Taxes, inflation, fear, greed, the business cycle, financial crises and market meltdowns all conspired to, not grow, and not even maintain, but shrivel the purchasing power of the average investor.

2. The vast majority of passive investors simply don't have and never will have the psychological discipline to keep the faith during bear markets meltdowns of -30%, -40% or -50% that decimate their retirement nest eggs.

And who can blame them?

Thankfully, there is a better way.

Quote of The Day: Italy and The Euro-Zone Debt Crisis...

2011-11-08T06:58:00.000-08:00

Even after the Euro-Zone debt deal, some analysts are not sounding the "all clear,"...

"With a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio and 10-year Italian bonds yielding roughly 7%, they can't do that forever or the borrowing costs will get to an unsustainable level," said Eric Stein, portfolio manager at the Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund. "As your rates go up, it means you're paying more and more to service your debt, and your whole debt dynamics become harder and harder and harder."

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-11-07T07:09:00.000-08:00

On Friday, November 4, the S&P 500 closed @ 1253, and that was...

   +0.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1242.
   -1.6% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1274.
   +5.6% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1187.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is BULLISH and the LONG-Term trend is NEUTRAL.

Why The Euro-Zone Debt Deal Could Easily Fail...

2011-11-04T05:48:00.000-07:00

The Euro-Zone Debt Deal: The Italian Bond Market Remains Skeptical...

2011-11-03T09:00:00.000-07:00

Despite the Euro-Zone debt deal, interest rates on Italy's 10-year bond rose to a new high, a sign that bond investors are not convinced that the European sovereign debt crisis has been resolved.

You Think It's Bad in The USA? Be Thankful That You Don't Live in Greece...

2011-11-02T06:33:00.000-07:00

Quote of The Day: Euro-Zone Debt Markets Level of Optimism...

2011-11-01T07:30:00.000-07:00

“Euro-Zone debt markets have not registered the same degree of optimism as the equity markets…far from it.”

- Michael Darda, Chief Economist and Strategist at MKM Partners

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-10-31T07:25:00.000-07:00

On Friday, October 28, the S&P 500 closed @ 1285, and that was...

    +3.2% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1245.
    +0.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1274.
    +8.1% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1189.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BULLISH and the LONG-Term trend is Neutral to Moderately BULLISH.

What Lump Sum Will Provide Real Income of $100,000 Per Year for 30 Years?

2011-10-28T10:10:00.000-07:00

A present value (PV) amount of $1.96 million in a pre-tax retirement account is required today to fund a future payment stream of 30 years of $100,000 annually (with a +2.5% cost of living / inflation increase for maintenance of purchasing power) assuming that a +6% rate of return (ROR) can be maintained into the future.

If the ROR falls to +5%, the PV amount rises +13% to $2.21 million. If the ROR rises to +7%, the PV falls -11% to $1.75 million.

These calculations do not account for the payment of federal income taxes which would be due as a result of withdrawals from any pre-tax retirement funds.

Source: BTN Research

Amid Retirement Worries, Owners Of Annuities And Long-Term Care Insurance Are Most Confident

2011-10-27T13:58:00.000-07:00

Confidence among U.S. workers in their retirement prospects plummeted -18.2% this year to a four-year low.

One in five working Americans now say they do not plan to retire at all, according to a survey by Sun Life Financial.

Retirement confidence levels had remained level for the past three years as measured by Sun Life’s Unretirement Index, a survey of nearly 1,500 workers. On a scale of 1 to 100, the index fell from 44 in September 2010 to 36 in September 2011.

All five subject areas covered by the poll fell this year, including employee benefits (-31.7%), the economy (-25.0%), government benefits (-21.6%), personal finances (-13.9%), and personal health (-13.2%).

Only 23% of working Americans feel very confident that they will meet basic living expenses in retirement, a huge drop from 42% last year.

Confidence in the future of Social Security fell to just 9%, continuing a steady plunge from 22% in 2008. Confidence about receiving adequate Medicare benefits has fallen to 8% from 20% in 2008.

The respondents who felt most confident about their retirement are those who expect to receive guaranteed lifetime income from annuities by age 67, or who own long-term care insurance products.

Wes Thompson, president of Sun Life Financial U.S., said in a written statement, “We believe the higher confidence of respondents across all wealth levels who own either variable annuities or long-term care insurance vehicles provides a positive wake-up call: Americans can take action to help secure their future and feel more secure about their golden years.”

Average Assets of IRA and 401(k) Owners (by Net Worth)...

2011-10-26T11:14:00.000-07:00

National Debt from 1940 to 2011...

2011-10-25T09:41:00.000-07:00

Are we headed in the right direction?

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-10-24T16:42:00.000-07:00

On Friday, October 21, the S&P 500 closed @ 1238, and that was...

   -0.1% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1236.
   -2.8% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1274.
   +5.6% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1173.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS NEUTRAL to Moderately BULLISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Percentage of Retirees Holding Mortgage Debt At Alltime Highs...

2011-10-21T08:03:00.000-07:00

The Misery Index: The Worst in 28 Years...

2011-10-20T09:32:00.000-07:00

To put the current Misery Index (unemployment plus inflation = 12.9) in some historical context:

(1) it's higher than any time in the past 28 years

(2) it's +36% higher than the post-World War II average of 9.5

(3) there have been only 9 years in the past 63 when the annual Misery Index topped 12.9 — all in the inflationary 1970s.

The 1970s was the last time stagflation reared its ugly head.

Rampant government spending, regulatory hyperactivity and endless federal meddling in the economy were the root causes.

Sound familiar?

Household Debt Is A Drag (On The Economy)...

2011-10-19T19:23:00.000-07:00

While no single element of the economy is a magic elixir that will propel growth, there is one glaring area that continues to affect overall economic growth: Household Debt.

One of the main aftershocks of the weak economic recovery has been the indebted fiscal condition of U.S. households.

From 1952 to 1979, the average ratio of household debt to gross disposable income was 57%, but over the past three decades the averages steadily, and then dramatically, climbed higher.

In the 1980s, it averaged 69%; in the 1990s it averaged 84%; but then the housing boom hit in the 2000s and the ratio skyrocketed to an average of 112%.

The ratio ultimately peaked in Q3 2007 at 127%, right before the onset of the recession.

While the household-debt-to-disposable-income ratio has come down to 113%, there is still a way to go to reach the lower levels of the 1980s or 1990s. Given the level of gross disposable income at the end of Q1, overall household debt would need to fall another -$3.4 trillion to match the average debt-to-disposable-income ratio of 84% from the 1990s.

It will be a long slog to get household debt back to more sustainable levels—a process made all the more difficult and painful by the slow growth in personal income.

As long as household debt levels remain high, deflationary pressures will likely remain a headwind to consumer spending, and thus to economic growth.

Chart of the Day: The Shale Gas Revolution in PA Has Helped the U.S. Become No. 1 in the World!

2011-10-18T07:08:00.000-07:00

The chart above is from the Energy Information Administration and illustrates graphically the significant increases in natural gas production in recent years from increased drilling activity in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania.

In only about a 3-year period, natural gas production in the northeast United States has tripled from 1.5 billion cubic feet per day in July 2008 to more than 4.5 billion cubic feet per day by July 2011, with almost all of the increase coming from new drilling in Pennsylvania.

The shale gas revolution in Pennsylvania has been responsible for America going from the 9th largest producer in the world ten years ago to the No. 1 producer in the world starting last year.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-10-17T08:34:00.000-07:00

On Friday, October 14, the S&P 500 closed @ 1225, and that was...

   -0.9% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1236.
   -4.0% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1275.
   +4.9% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1167.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS NEUTRAL to Moderately BULLISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Health Insurance Premiums Soar +9.5% Under ObamaCare...

2011-10-14T11:23:00.000-07:00

Cartoon of The Day: Protesting Corporate Greed?

2011-10-13T07:18:00.000-07:00

Fastest Growing Segment In The U.S. Is The Age 65+ Group

2011-10-12T14:21:00.000-07:00

The forecasted fastest-growing segment of the adult U.S. population by far from 2010 to 2020 will be the 65+ category, which is expected to grow by +36%.

This is due to the continuing maturation of the Baby Boom Generation, which swells the ranks of every age category it progressively hits.

Because of this large and growing 65+ population, much of the investment market is retirement driven, creating massive pools of retirement-directed capital in the financial markets.

-39% Purchasing Power Destruction Over The Past 20 Years...

2011-10-11T06:57:00.000-07:00

An individual living on a fixed income over the 20 years from the end of 1990 to the end of 2010 would have suffered a -39% loss of purchasing power over the 2 decades using the CPI as a gauge of inflation

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-10-10T06:59:00.000-07:00

On Friday, October 7, the S&P 500 closed @ 1156, and that was...

   -5.7% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1225.
   -9.5% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1277.
   -0.8% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1165.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BEARISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Long-Term Care: 70% of Americans Over Age 65 Will Need It...

2011-10-07T08:20:00.000-07:00

Some 70% of Americans older than age 65 will need long-term care, meaning help with daily activities such as eating and bathing, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Yet the same survey found that almost no one had discussed long-term care insurance with a financial adviser or lawyer.

Retirees and Annuity Income Study Findings...

2011-10-06T13:17:00.000-07:00

35% — Of all retirees receive income from an annuity
40% — Of retirees say their annuity income is guaranteed for life
49% — Of retirees age 75-79 receive income from an annuity

More than a third (35%) of retirees receive income from an annuity, a recent LIMRA study has documented. That percentage, however, could increase as fewer Americans retire with a pension.

Jafor Iqbal, associate managing director, LIMRA Retirement Research, noted in a release detailing the results of the study that the majority of current retirees rely primarily on pensions and Social Security to fund daily living expenses, with annuities accounting for only 4% of their income.

“But in the coming years,” he said, “we expect to see fewer Americans retiring with pensions and more relying on their personal savings to fund their retirement. Annuities will provide a reliable way to convert that savings into a guaranteed income stream.”

The online survey was conducted in October of last year and polled qualified respondents age 55 to 79 who had been retired for at least one year and had household incomes starting at $35,000.

S&P 500 On A Long-Term Monthly Sell Signal Since August 31, 2011

2011-10-05T09:52:00.000-07:00

Net Worth of IRA and 401(k) Owners...

2011-10-04T09:15:00.000-07:00

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-10-03T07:28:00.000-07:00

On Friday, September 30, the S&P 500 closed @ 1131, and that was...

   -8.6% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1238.
  -11.5% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1279.
   -4.0% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1178.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BEARISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Mountain of Consumer and Mortgage Debt Hold Retirees Hostage...

2011-09-30T16:39:00.000-07:00

Budget Deficit A Result of A Leadership Deficit In Washington....

2011-09-29T07:52:00.000-07:00

By the end of his first term, President Obama and Congress will have BORROWED more money than the federal government has SPENT over the nation's first 200 years!

Wages (Adjusted for Inflation) Declining Again...

2011-09-28T06:13:00.000-07:00

Tax Returns With Zero Or Negative Federal Tax Liability Reaches Soars to 47%!

2011-09-27T07:29:00.000-07:00

"Too many takers — not enough givers."

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-09-26T07:05:00.000-07:00

On Friday, September 23, the S&P 500 closed @ 1136, and that was...

   -8.3% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1239.
  -11.4% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1282.
   -5.3% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1200.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BEARISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Excessive Debt: Why The U.S. Economy Can't Grow

2011-09-23T05:44:00.000-07:00

Household, business and government debt is now at $36.5 trillion, a new record.

This $36.5 trillion of total debt does NOT include the government's unfunded Medicare and Social Security liabilities.

Total government debt now stands at 65% of GDP, a level unseen since World War II.

Total household debt relative to GDP stands at 66%, a far cry from the historical average of only 37% dating back to 1951.

BOTTOM LINE: Until this enormous household, business and government debt overhang is significantly reduced (aka deleveraging) sustained, robust economic growth is highly unlikely.

Bearish Omen for The Stock Market: Copper Drops to New Lows

2011-09-22T06:51:00.000-07:00

Chart and article excerpts courtesy of Investors Business Daily

Copper, the so-called red metal with a Ph.D. in economics is used to gauge global activity because it's found in all facets of everyday life, from consumer electronics to building infrastructure. Like most commodities, copper has fallen amid the dollar's newfound strength the past month, owing to safe-haven buying spurred by the European debt crisis.

Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, wrote in his Sept. 16 newsletter that "copper's failure to rally along with the stock market suggests the market will likely give back its gains."

"The global economy is still quite weak, particularly here in the U.S.," said Bill Strazzullo, a partner and chief market strategist at Bell Curve Trading. "We believe you will see the S&P 500 trading around 1000 to 950 and the Dow at 9400 to 9000."

Read the entire Investor Business Daily report here...
Copper ETFs Hit New Low, A Bad Omen For Stocks

Quote of the Day: A Fundamental Economic & Political Fallacy...

2011-09-21T08:41:00.000-07:00

A fundamental fallacy is the notion that politicians can "grow the economy" by taking money out of the private sector and spending it wherever it is politically expedient to spend it -- so long as they call spending "investment."

~Thomas Sowell - Economist

Household Income Slumps to 1996 Levels: Ouch!

2011-09-20T07:40:00.000-07:00

The income of the typical American family has dropped for the 3rd year in a row and is now roughly where it was in 1996 when adjusted for inflation.

The income of a household considered to be at the statistical middle fell -2.3% to an inflation-adjusted $49,445 in 2010, which is -7.1% below its 1999 peak, the Census Bureau said.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-09-19T07:15:00.000-07:00

On Friday, September 16, the S&P 500 closed @ 1216, which was...

   -2.8% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1251.
   -5.4% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1285.
   -0.2% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1218.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BEARISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Quote of The Day: Why France's Biggest Banks Are In Deep Trouble

2011-09-16T15:20:00.000-07:00

This scary statistic from a BNP Paribas bank executive who declined to be named...

"The total debt of the three big U.S. banks (Bank of America, JP Morgan and Citigroup) is $5.86 trillion, or 39% of U.S. GDP, while the debts of BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale (France's three biggest banks) come to €4.7 trillion, or 250% of French GDP."

Are We Headed for A Prolonged Japanese Deflationary Slog?

2011-09-15T05:38:00.000-07:00

If you look at the progression of the U.S. stock market boom and bust, it's easy to see comparisons to the long deflationary slog experienced by Japan.

What's more, we have a similar monetary structure (our own currency, with mostly domestically-owned, domestically denominated debt), and we're facing a similar crisis (too much private sector debt).

The Treasury market shows it as well.

The spread between current Treasury yields and yields on Japanese Government Bonds has hit a new multi-decade low.

And beyond that, the progression of the Treasury yield collapse has has gone at a similar pace.

This chart comes from Nomura's Richard Koo, lining up 10-year yields between Japan and the U.S. at the start of each respective crisis.

Bottom Line:

10-year Treasury yields have a lot longer to fall if you think Japan is a good guide.

Our Debt Ceiling Limit Has Doubled in The Past 7 Years...

2011-09-14T07:06:00.000-07:00

After increasing the nation's debt ceiling limit to $15.2 trillion per the legislation signed by President Obama on 08/02/11, we have more than doubled our debt ceiling limit in less than 7 years.

The debt ceiling was $7.4 trillion as of 10/31/04.

Source: Treasury Department

Global Recession Ahead? Crude Oil Says, "Not Yet!"...

2011-09-13T08:08:00.000-07:00

When global markets collapsed in 2008, crude oil plunged for 7 consecutive months, crumbling from $147 per barrel in July 2008 and bottoming near $35 a barrel in February 2009. (See monthly crude oil chart above.)

Fast forward to September 2011 where we see crude oil trading near $90 a barrel.

Bottom Line:

If a severe global recession takes hold, expect crude oil, a harbinger for global growth, to plunge. So far, that hasn't happened, a positive for the global economy and global financial markets.

Keep a watchful eye on crude oil and copper for warning signs of a global recession.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

2011-09-12T07:45:00.000-07:00

On Friday, September 9, the S&P 500 closed @ 1154, putting it...

    -7.1% BELOW its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1242.
  -10.2% BELOW its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1286.
   -6.2% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1230.

Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend IS BEARISH and the LONG-Term trend is BEARISH.

Cartoon of The Day: 9/11 Remembered - 10 Years After

2011-09-11T08:18:00.000-07:00

In Government We Mistrust?...

2011-09-09T06:29:00.000-07:00

Life Insurance: Unwisely Neglected In Financial Planning...

2011-09-08T09:56:00.000-07:00

49% — Of U.S. adults who have a financial advisor and a financial plan have discussed adding life insurance.
47% — Of U.S. adults who have a financial advisor and a financial plan said their advisors have never reviewed their existing life insurance policy with them.
28% — Of U.S. adults said they would be interested in a life insurance policy that included long-term coverage.

Online survey conducted by Harris Interactive on behalf of Saybrus Partners, Inc., a life insurance partnership and subsidiary of the Phoenix Cos., Inc. Poll was conducted in late July and surveyed 2,410 adults 18 and older, of which 786 said they currently have a financial advisor.

Food Stamp Recipients At An All-Time High...

2011-09-07T08:12:00.000-07:00

45.8 million Americans receive food stamps today, an all-time record.

That represents 1 out of every 7 Americans.