Claus Vogt, an analyst for Money and Markets noted when the Economic Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Indicator crossed a point that almost guarantees a recession.
On July 14 the index’s growth rate was -8.3%. In the week ending July 30 the index declined even further to -10.3% growth rates. The year over year percentage of growth crossed the zero mark in May, and has not seen positive growth since.
The ECRI Weekly Indicator has NEVER fallen this low and avoided recession.
Issues that signal the likelihood of recession, according to Vogt include:
1. The end of the recent recession was bought with heavy reliance on government stimulus which is now over 80% spent.
2. Despite heavy government spending and debt the rebound is one of the weakest recession rebounds ever.
3. Credit is still tight.
4. Unemployment is still at astronomical levels and is deteriorating again
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