“Extreme Greed” is the dominant emotion that is currently driving the stock market, a Bearish Omen.
Showing posts with label bullish. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bullish. Show all posts
Friday, July 25, 2014
CNN Money's Fear & Greed Index Says...
“Extreme Greed” is the dominant emotion that is currently driving the stock market, a Bearish Omen.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Corporate Stock Buybacks Bullish For Stocks...
Forget fundamentals, here's another reason to be bullish.
WJB Capital Group points out that in just the last few weeks, there's been a massive surge in S&P 500 stock buybacks coinciding with a boom in corporate bond issuance.
In other words, companies continue to take advantage of uber-cheap lending to reduce their share counts.
This is truly a stunning chart!
When buyback announcements hit $100 billion in the last quarter, we pronounced that companies had now put themselves in the driver’s seat in terms of being the major buyer of stocks, just as they did in the last bull market.
In other words, companies continue to take advantage of uber-cheap lending to reduce their share counts.
This is truly a stunning chart!
When buyback announcements hit $100 billion in the last quarter, we pronounced that companies had now put themselves in the driver’s seat in terms of being the major buyer of stocks, just as they did in the last bull market.
And yet, stock investors still don’t want to believe it. Most of Wall Street’s resources go to examining fundamentals or the behavior of other stock investors.
Almost no analysis goes into corporate purchases of stocks, despite their importance.
As a result, with shares set to shrink -5% or more a year, earnings per share estimates three years out may be -15% too low!
Almost no analysis goes into corporate purchases of stocks, despite their importance.
As a result, with shares set to shrink -5% or more a year, earnings per share estimates three years out may be -15% too low!
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Bullish Omen: A New All-Time High for Market Breadth...
When the NYSE Advance/Decline Line makes a multi-year high, stocks tend to do quite a bit better than average in the intermediate- to long-term.
It doesn't mean there won't be any corrections, but the probability of a -10% plus decline during the next 6 months is greatly reduced.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Small-Cap Momentum Bullish for Stock Market
On February 25th, a streak of 9 straight up days in the small-cap Russell 2000 index had just been broken by a relatively large decline.
Far from signaling an end to the momentum, in similar historical circumstances, we nearly always saw that index recover the loss, usually very quickly, and it continued to do well over the next month or so.
It has certainly continued that winning pattern lately, and has now been positive 16 out of the past 18 trading days.
In both the short- and long-term, the small-cap index has, in the past, tended to exhibit a continuation of the momentum, and with strong average returns.
This is often a by-product of a market that is emerging from oversold conditions, and buying interest is so eager that we see extreme momentum. And that is one of the strongest buy signals we can encounter.
Whether our current situation qualifies as having emerged from oversold conditions is debatable - we got quite a few of those indications in February, but the index is already trading at a new high.
Similar historical action suggests perhaps a short-term pause, and questionable prospects over the next several months, but at the very least we'll likely see at least one more new high after whatever short-term correction may come.
On average, under similar historical conditions, , the Russell 2000 has gained +2.9% in three months, +6.1% in six months and +20.0% one year later.
Far from signaling an end to the momentum, in similar historical circumstances, we nearly always saw that index recover the loss, usually very quickly, and it continued to do well over the next month or so.
It has certainly continued that winning pattern lately, and has now been positive 16 out of the past 18 trading days.
In both the short- and long-term, the small-cap index has, in the past, tended to exhibit a continuation of the momentum, and with strong average returns.
This is often a by-product of a market that is emerging from oversold conditions, and buying interest is so eager that we see extreme momentum. And that is one of the strongest buy signals we can encounter.
Whether our current situation qualifies as having emerged from oversold conditions is debatable - we got quite a few of those indications in February, but the index is already trading at a new high.
Similar historical action suggests perhaps a short-term pause, and questionable prospects over the next several months, but at the very least we'll likely see at least one more new high after whatever short-term correction may come.
On average, under similar historical conditions, , the Russell 2000 has gained +2.9% in three months, +6.1% in six months and +20.0% one year later.
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