On Friday April 1st, small-cap and mid-cap stocks (not shown) posted new weekly bull market recovery highs.
When these two sectors lead the market higher, it's been a bullish omen, historically.
In addition, downside stock market risk has been below average and upside potential has been above average in similar historical climates.
Ned Davis Research Reports that the Percentage of New Highs on the New York Stock Exchange hit the highest point of this cycle on January 8th at 26.7%.
Bull markets typically don't expire directly after a peak in the % of New Highs has been reached.
Since 1967, the median lead time between the peak in New Highs and the top of bull markets has been a little more than 7 months.
The fresh peak in New Highs implies that the risk of new bear market is highly likely to be several months away, and market risk is not likely to become problematic until at least the 2nd half of 2010.
