Showing posts with label wages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wages. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Wage Growth Metric is Precisely Where It Was the Last Time the Fed Started Hiking Rates...

This Wage Growth Metric is Exactly Where It Was the Last Time the Fed Started Hiking Rates 

Wage growth is here.

On Thursday, we got the latest Employment Cost Index (or ECI), which climbed +0.7% in the first quarter, beating the estimate for a +0.6% gain. The index climbed +2.2% quarter-over-quarter, and +2.6% over the previous year.

That led one economist to suggest that the economy is "beyond full employment." 

And Steven Englander, Citi's global head of fixed income strategy, highlights something else that's remarkable about the ECI.

"ECI wages and salaries (dark blue) are now exactly where they were when fed funds began to rise in 2004," Englander said. He highlighted this with a chart.

Englander notes that while wages were falling then, they are rising now. 

The sluggish pace of wage growth is one of the biggest things that has kept the Fed on hold. On Thursday, the ECI, as well as the lower-than-expected initial jobless claims print for last week, signalled more tightness in the labor market.

To be clear, Citi's economists are not calling for the Federal Reserve to begin hiking rates in June. Englander only points to it as an "interesting" observation.

However, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, said a rate hike next month is still "on the table," according to Reuters.


Friday, February 21, 2014

The Truth About The Minimum Wage...




Just 2.5% of American workers (3.6 million out of 143.2 million workers) were earning the minimum wage ($7.25 per hour) at the end of 2012 and 51% of them were less than 25 years old!


(Source: Department of Labor)


Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Why Market Risk May Be Higher Than You Think: Reason #3 of 5...

3. Deflation is already here. 

Consumer prices have fallen for
3 months in a row. And, most ominously, it's affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned -0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried.

In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size.

That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money.