Monday, July 14, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, July 11, the S&P 500 closed @ 1968, and that was...
+8.4% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1835.
+7.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1847.
+3.1% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1934.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, July 11, 2014
The "Inverted Yield Curve": A Perfect Track Record Predicting U.S. Recessions...
A Perfect Track Record For Forecasting U.S. Recessions
There are very few market indicators that can predict recessions without sending out false positives.
The Yield Curve is one of them.
Recently, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Kleintop noted that the yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years.
"That is 7 out of 7 times — a perfect forecasting track record," he reiterated.
The yield curve is INVERTED when short-term interest rates (e.g. the 3-year Treasury) are HIGHER than long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-year Treasury yield).
"The yield curve inversion usually takes place about 12 months before the start of the recession, but the lead time ranges from about 5 to 16 months," wrote Kleintop in a recent note.
"The peak in the stock market comes around the time of the yield curve inversion, ahead of the recession and accompanying downturn in corporate profits."
The Federal Reserve has been signaling that tighter monetary policy is on its way, which means short-term interest rates should move higher. Is this something we should be worried about? Kleintop offered some context:
"How far the Fed must push up short-term rates before the yield curve inverts by 0.5% depends on where long-term rates are. Even if long-term rates stay at the very low yield of 2.6% seen in mid-June 2014, to invert the yield curve by 0.5% the Fed would need to hike short-term rates from around zero to more than 3%. Based on the latest survey of current Fed members that vote on rate hikes, they do not expect to raise rates above 3% until sometime in 2017, at the earliest..."
Lots of economic and market factors drive what happens with interest rates. So the shape of the yield curve is definitely worth paying attention to.
"The facts suggest the best indicator for the start of a bear market may still be a long way from signaling a cause for concern," he said.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Stats on The Longest Running Bull Market Since 1950...
As of June 30, the current bull market for the S&P 500 is 5.3 years in duration.
The longest running bull market for the stock index since 1950 lasted 9.5 years.
During that 9.5 year bull market, the S&P 500 gained +111% through 5.3 years, then gained another +145% after 5.3 years.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, July 4, the S&P 500 closed @ 1985, and that was...
+8.1% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1836.
+7.5% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1847.
+2.6% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1935.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Correction-Resistant S&P 500 Is On A Historic Run...
As of June 30, 2014, the S&P 500 has gone exactly 1,000 calendar days (from 10/03/2011 through and including 6/29/2014) without a -10% or greater drop in the index, the 5th longest stretch without a double-digit pullback in the last 50 years.
If the S&P 500 is able to avoid a -10% correction through 11/04/2014, this run will move into 4th place, replacing a 1,127 day streak within the 1984-87 bull.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, June 27, the S&P 500 closed @ 1961, and that was...
+8.3% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1811.
+7.0% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1833.
+2.2% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1918.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, June 27, 2014
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Monday, June 23, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, June 20, the S&P 500 closed @ 1963, and that was...
+8.4% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1811.
+7.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1827.
+3.1% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1904.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Upward Sloping Treasury Yield Curve is a Bullish Omen for the Stock Market & the U.S. Economy
Recessions rarely occur when the yield curve is sloping upward.
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, June 13, the S&P 500 closed @ 1936, and that was...
+7.1% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1807.
+6.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1820.
+2.5% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1889.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, June 13, 2014
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Monday, June 9, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, June 6, the S&P 500 closed @ 1949, and that was...
+7.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1809.
+7.5% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1813.
+3.6% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1882.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is BULLISH
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, June 6, 2014
Unprecedented!!! European Central Charges Negative Interest Rate!
The European Central Bank has taken the unprecedented step of taking interest rates into negative territory.
Yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled the central bank's decision to take its deposit rate into negative territory, to -0.10%.
This is the first time a major central bank has cut any interest rate below zero.
The rate cut means that any bank reserves held at the ECB will be charged 10 basis points, or 0.10%, for being hoarded rather than used for some form of investment.
The idea is that if banks are penalized for parking their reserves at the ECB, they will be more apt to lend out that money, hopefully spurring economic activity.
Claus Vistesen, Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that in his press conference following the ECB's announcement, Draghi signaled that markets should not expect further rate cuts.
Vistesen said, "The drag on the banking industry's earnings should be minimal given the current relatively low usage of the central bank's deposit facility."
The direct effect of a negative deposit rate may be muted, but the idea that savers can be penalized for holding money in a bank is new territory for the financial industry.
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
What Does It Mean to Be "Rich" in America?
The vast majority of investors, 84%, associate wealth with greater security, but older investors are more likely to view security has a hallmark of being rich.
More than 87% percent of investors ages 61 and over associate wealth with security, compared to 72% of investors 40 and under.
Younger investors are more apt to associate “More Happiness,” “More Fun” and “Less Work” with being wealthy, while older investors are more likely to feel the wealthy have more responsibility and a more complicated life.
Americans tend to define “Rich” primarily by wealth level, as opposed to lifestyle or income, while less affluent investors, those with less than $100,000 in investable assets, are more apt than higher net worth individuals to define the wealthy by income and lifestyle.
Monday, June 2, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, May 30, the S&P 500 closed @ 1924, and that was...
+7.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1783.
+6.6% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1804.
+2.7% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1873.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, May 30, 2014
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, May 23, the S&P 500 closed @ 1901, and that was...
+6.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1780.
+5.7% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1798.
+1.8% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1867.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, May 23, 2014
Cartoon of The Day: How The Veterans Administration is Treating Our Heroes
Jeff Darcy is a talented cartoonist with the Northeast Ohio Media Group and he recently drew the cartoon above, one of the best political cartoons on the VA Scandal.
Read more @
http://eaglerising.com/6337/va-scandal-cartoon/#7WZPEa0ctWbKbVCu.99
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Monday, May 19, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, May 16, the S&P 500 closed @ 1878, and that was...
+5.7% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1776.
+4.8% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1792.
+0.9% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1861.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, May 16, 2014
The Average NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Stock is Already In A Bear Market
There are no perfect stock market indexes that'll give you a complete picture of the state of the market.
Most market-watchers prefer the S&P 500 over the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But the fact that the S&P 500 is with striking distance of its all-time high of 1,897 belies the fact that many stocks in the index and in the market as a whole are way down.
"When we examine breadth in terms of new highs, more specifically stocks that are in ‘striking distance’ to a new high, we see a completely different picture," writes J.C. O'Hara, of FBN Securities. "Often at the end of bull markets, large cap stocks continue to rise and the smaller stocks begin to flatter."
The S&P 500 is cap-weighted, which means larger companies like Apple and ExxonMobil have a much larger impact on how the index moves.
"High cap stocks influence the averages more thus can mask internal weakness," continued O'Hara.
O'Hara's research found that the average S&P 1500 stock is down by more than -12% from their recent 52-week highs. The average stocks in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite are down by more than -20%, which means you can say they are in bear markets.
"Historically, this sort of divergence does not bode well for the longevity of a market’s upward inertia," said O'Hara. "We went back and examined instances where the market made a new high and looked at where the median stock sat compare to its high. Our data suggests that the current breadth reading is very unhealthy. Not only are new highs diminishing but we are seeing many stocks making new lows. This breadth divergence is a major concern."
O'Hara says this isn't necessarily a screaming sell signal.
"However the powerful message of “there is something wrong” should not go unnoticed," he cautions.
Read more: The Average NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Stock is Already In A Bear Market
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Monday, May 12, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, May 9, the S&P 500 closed @ 1878, and that was...
+5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1776.
+5.1% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1787.
+0.9% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1861.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Good News on the Job Front...
The United States is just 120,000 jobs away from recovering all losses from the Great Recession!
Monday, May 5, 2014
Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis
On Friday, May 2, the S&P 500 closed @ 1881, and that was...
+5.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1777.
+5.5% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1783.
+1.2% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1859.
Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.
Friday, May 2, 2014
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
