Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 26, the S&P 500 closed @ 1983, and that was...
  
   +5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1875.
   +4.3% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1902.
   +0.3% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1977.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #2. Longer Life Expectancies

New research on asset sufficiency is challenging some of the standard retirement planning rules of thumb, such as the 4% safe withdrawal rate. 

A 65-year-old married couple retiring today will likely see at least one spouse live longer than the 30 years.

Case Study: What Does A Long-Term Care Policy Cost A Couple, Aged 60 in 2014?

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed @ 2010, and that was...
  
   +6.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1880.
   +5.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1898.
   +1.7% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1976.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #3. Balancing Risk & Return

Developing a proper asset allocation in a portfolio requires balancing many factors including risk tolerance, cash flow needs, time horizon and return requirements.

Planners want to reduce risk as much as possible in the portfolio while still achieving a sufficient return to achieve the client's financial goals -- an even more challenging task in light of current low interest rates on cash and bonds.

President Obama's Immigration Order Opposed...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 12, the S&P 500 closed @ 1986, and that was...
  
   +5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1876.
   +4.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1892.
   +0.7% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1972.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #4. Enjoying Retirement

While it is important to come up with a retirement withdrawal rate that is sustainable, it should also allow clients to enjoy their retirement. 

Planners and clients often focus on not running out of money, but clients also don't want to die with too much money.

The USA May Be Near Full Employment?

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 5, the S&P 500 closed @ 2008, and that was...
  
   +6.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1879.
   +6.3% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1888.
   +1.8% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1972.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #5. Withdrawal Strategy

Often it's very difficult to move from a lifetime of spending what comes in to drawing down on a portfolio. Coming up with an amount to keep in cash reserve -- and maintaining it -- is critical.

Many people might find 3 bucket strategy helps them compartmentalize what they are spending in order to avoid stress over market fluctuations.

Managing the tax impact of withdrawals and understanding how each piece of income is taxed is essential.

Bullish Omen: Durable Goods Orders Skyrocket...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 29, the S&P 500 closed @ 2003, and that was...
  
   +7.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1856.
   +6.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1882.
   +1.8% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1967.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #6. Monitoring Expenses

Expenses are often much different in retirement than they are during working years, but they are still incredibly important to the overall plan.

Often, clients will spend more in the early years of retirement, see expenses dip in the middle, then rise as they near the end of their lives and medical expenses climb.

Also, NOT all Expense Categories grow at the Same Rate of Inflation, and this needs to be considered when forecasting long-term expenses.

Status Update on The Economic Recovery under President Obama...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 22, the S&P 500 closed @ 1988, and that was...
  
   +7.3% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1853.
   +5.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1878.
   +1.3% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1963.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #7. Social Security Uncertainty

The role of Social Security in the retirement planning process is changing as concerns grow over the availability of benefits for future generations. 

According to the Annual Report of the Board of Trustees, RESERVES for Social Security will be fully depleted in 2033, which is not too far away. 

While it's impossible to predict what will happen to the system, planners and their clients need to consider the impact of potential reductions to payments.

Vanguard's 10-Year Investment Forecast Predicts a +5.7% per Year Real Return

Excerpt:

"Vanguard predicts a most likely case of a +5.7% real annual returns for stocks, but other experts are more cautious.

In his new book, Rational Expectations, William J. Bernstein predicts a +2% real return for large-cap stocks and +3% for small-cap stocks over the next decade.

Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, forecasts a +3% real return over the next decade."

My own opinion is that the future is even more uncertain than the ranges shown in the Vanguard model — especially on the downside.

And as I see it, the world is a less predictable place than ever before.

Read the entire report here...

Vanguard Capital Markets Model: 10-Year Investing Forecast

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 15, the S&P 500 closed @ 1955, and that was...
  
   +5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1848.
   +4.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1873.
   -0.2% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1958.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #8. When to File for Social Security

There are various Social Security claiming strategies that help to maximize the benefits for an individual or couple.

The breakeven age where you would be better off delaying benefits typically occurs between your late 70s and early 80s, depending on how long you wait and other factors.

The +8% per year increase from full retirement age to age 70 is compelling, and once a client crosses that breakeven age, the benefit grows exponentially.

Strategies such as "file and suspend" can be used to fully maximize Social Security benefits, especially for married couples.

Current Bull Market Exceeds the Average Duration...

The bull market for the S&P 500 is in its 66th month.

Since bottoming on 03/09/09 (i.e., 65 months ago), the S&P 500 has gained +220% (total return) through the close of trading last Friday, 08/08/14.

The average bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950 has lasted 58 months.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 8, the S&P 500 closed @ 1932, and that was...
  
   +4.7% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1845.
   +3.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1868.
   -1.3% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1958.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #9. Estate Planning

While estate planning is less important for federal estate tax reasons, with the increase in the exemption amounts to over $5 million per person, the non-financial aspects of estate planning are still critical.

Making sure clients have a power of attorney updated and in place, and addressing the need for health care documents like a health care power of attorney and advance directive can be very important.

Trustee designations and naming the proper beneficiaries are often missed or not changed when life circumstances change.

U.S. Home Price Appreciation Cooling Off...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 1, the S&P 500 closed @ 1925, and that was...
  
   +4.4% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1844.
   +3.3% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1864.
   -1.5% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1957.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #10. Long-Term Care Protection

Long-Term Care costs are increasing -- as is the percentage of the population that will need this kind of care at some point in their lives.

Looking broadly at how to fund these costs is important, whether that means self-insuring if you have enough assets or buying some form of Long-Term Care insurance (LTCi).

Bearish Omen: NYSE Margin Debt is At High-Risk, Pre-Crash Levels...

Back in March, bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach was warning that margin debt, which reflects the dollar volume of securities investors have purchased through borrowed money, was in "the scary zone." At the time, NYSE margin debt surged to $465 billion.

After dipping for a few month, margin debt is back on the rise. As of June, NYSE margin debt is just short of those all-time highs.

For longtime market observer Dennis Gartman, this means the stock market is ripe for a correction.   

"...since ’09 margin debt has risen from $200 billion to nearly $475 billion as of two months ago and historically margin debt actually begins to weaken from its highest levels before stock prices begin to turn downward," he writes. "If the highs were made a few months ago in margin debt, the market is more vulnerable now than it was, if history is prologue to the future. Although past performance by mutual and hedge fund managers is not, according to the SEC, indicative of future performance, when it comes to margin debt the past truly is a guide to the future." 

Doug Short, who published the data to which Gartman refers, is a bit more sanguine. He notes that the data are already several weeks old when published, so we can't say for sure whether we're seeing a major shift in margin debt. 

Some also believe margin debt levels are a more benign coincident indicator whose recent movements are merely reflecting the increasing presence of hedge funds.

For his part, Gundlach said it may actually be difficult to tell whether the surge is a cause or effect of the broader market rally.

But it's clearly something investors are watching closely.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, July 25, the S&P 500 closed @ 1978, and that was...
  
   +7.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1836.
   +6.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1860.
   +1.2% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1904.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.