Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, October 10, the S&P 500 closed @ 1906, and that was...
  
   +1.4% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1879.
   +0.1% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1907.
   -3.4% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1974.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

Medicare: 7 Things You Don't Know - #7. Not All Investments Count As Income

A handful of investment products are NOT counted as INCOME by Medicare. 

They include distributions from health savings accounts and Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k) plans; proceeds from a reverse mortgage; income and loans from cash-value life insurance; and certain distributions from annuities in non-qualified accounts.

Performance of 12 Individual Asset Classes Over The Last 15-Years

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, October 3, the S&P 500 closed @ 1968, and that was...
  
   +4.2% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1888.
   +3.3% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1905.
   -0.9% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1976.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #1. Rising Health Care Costs...

An estimated 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day. 

Higher-income individuals are often in better health at retirement and will face higher lifetime health costs as they live longer.

Planning for these higher costs will be challenging, but very important.

Historically, What Do Stocks Do Before And After The Fed Starts Hiking Rates?...

Sooner or later, the Federal Reserve will begin normalizing monetary policy, which means higher interest rates are coming.

This has investors rightfully worried because higher rates mean higher interest costs, which should be bad for profits and ultimately stocks.

Deutsche Bank Chief US Equity Strategist David Bianco examined the history of Fed rate hikes and their impacts on stocks.

"Stocks typically sell-off on the first of a series of rate hikes, but the magnitude and duration of the sell-off depend on conditions," Bianco writes. "During early cycle hikes the initial sell-off was generally small, quickly recovered and further S&P gains came in next three months and longer (like 2004, 1983, 1972). But many sell- offs on late cycle hikes became corrections or even bear markets."

Unfortunately, it's only in hindsight do we know where we are in the cycle.

"Determining whether it’s early or late in the cycle is subjective, but the shape of the curve, inflation measures, years since the last recession can help," Bianco said. "Next year is likely another mid-cycle year and we don’t expect a severe S&P reaction to hikes, but the risk is the Fed hikes too late or too little and inflation accelerates requiring the Fed to hike to levels higher than expected."

Bianco's 27-page research note is riddled with exhibits. But we thought this one was pretty elegant.

It's the average price move of the S&P 500 during the 4 months before and the 6 months after the 1st rate hike. It's the average of the last 7 hikes.

It's not the most helpful chart for people who enjoy obsessing over the details. It does, however, show that the general direction of the stock market tends to be up.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-stocks-move-around-first-fed-rate-hikes-2014-9#ixzz3EMoczX9P

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 26, the S&P 500 closed @ 1983, and that was...
  
   +5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1875.
   +4.3% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1902.
   +0.3% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1977.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #2. Longer Life Expectancies

New research on asset sufficiency is challenging some of the standard retirement planning rules of thumb, such as the 4% safe withdrawal rate. 

A 65-year-old married couple retiring today will likely see at least one spouse live longer than the 30 years.

Case Study: What Does A Long-Term Care Policy Cost A Couple, Aged 60 in 2014?

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed @ 2010, and that was...
  
   +6.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1880.
   +5.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1898.
   +1.7% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1976.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #3. Balancing Risk & Return

Developing a proper asset allocation in a portfolio requires balancing many factors including risk tolerance, cash flow needs, time horizon and return requirements.

Planners want to reduce risk as much as possible in the portfolio while still achieving a sufficient return to achieve the client's financial goals -- an even more challenging task in light of current low interest rates on cash and bonds.

President Obama's Immigration Order Opposed...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 12, the S&P 500 closed @ 1986, and that was...
  
   +5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1876.
   +4.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1892.
   +0.7% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1972.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #4. Enjoying Retirement

While it is important to come up with a retirement withdrawal rate that is sustainable, it should also allow clients to enjoy their retirement. 

Planners and clients often focus on not running out of money, but clients also don't want to die with too much money.

The USA May Be Near Full Employment?

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, September 5, the S&P 500 closed @ 2008, and that was...
  
   +6.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1879.
   +6.3% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1888.
   +1.8% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1972.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #5. Withdrawal Strategy

Often it's very difficult to move from a lifetime of spending what comes in to drawing down on a portfolio. Coming up with an amount to keep in cash reserve -- and maintaining it -- is critical.

Many people might find 3 bucket strategy helps them compartmentalize what they are spending in order to avoid stress over market fluctuations.

Managing the tax impact of withdrawals and understanding how each piece of income is taxed is essential.

Bullish Omen: Durable Goods Orders Skyrocket...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 29, the S&P 500 closed @ 2003, and that was...
  
   +7.9% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1856.
   +6.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1882.
   +1.8% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1967.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #6. Monitoring Expenses

Expenses are often much different in retirement than they are during working years, but they are still incredibly important to the overall plan.

Often, clients will spend more in the early years of retirement, see expenses dip in the middle, then rise as they near the end of their lives and medical expenses climb.

Also, NOT all Expense Categories grow at the Same Rate of Inflation, and this needs to be considered when forecasting long-term expenses.

Status Update on The Economic Recovery under President Obama...

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 22, the S&P 500 closed @ 1988, and that was...
  
   +7.3% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1853.
   +5.9% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1878.
   +1.3% ABOVE its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1963.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #7. Social Security Uncertainty

The role of Social Security in the retirement planning process is changing as concerns grow over the availability of benefits for future generations. 

According to the Annual Report of the Board of Trustees, RESERVES for Social Security will be fully depleted in 2033, which is not too far away. 

While it's impossible to predict what will happen to the system, planners and their clients need to consider the impact of potential reductions to payments.

Vanguard's 10-Year Investment Forecast Predicts a +5.7% per Year Real Return

Excerpt:

"Vanguard predicts a most likely case of a +5.7% real annual returns for stocks, but other experts are more cautious.

In his new book, Rational Expectations, William J. Bernstein predicts a +2% real return for large-cap stocks and +3% for small-cap stocks over the next decade.

Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, forecasts a +3% real return over the next decade."

My own opinion is that the future is even more uncertain than the ranges shown in the Vanguard model — especially on the downside.

And as I see it, the world is a less predictable place than ever before.

Read the entire report here...

Vanguard Capital Markets Model: 10-Year Investing Forecast

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 15, the S&P 500 closed @ 1955, and that was...
  
   +5.8% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1848.
   +4.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1873.
   -0.2% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1958.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.

The Top 10 Retirement Challenges: #8. When to File for Social Security

There are various Social Security claiming strategies that help to maximize the benefits for an individual or couple.

The breakeven age where you would be better off delaying benefits typically occurs between your late 70s and early 80s, depending on how long you wait and other factors.

The +8% per year increase from full retirement age to age 70 is compelling, and once a client crosses that breakeven age, the benefit grows exponentially.

Strategies such as "file and suspend" can be used to fully maximize Social Security benefits, especially for married couples.

Current Bull Market Exceeds the Average Duration...

The bull market for the S&P 500 is in its 66th month.

Since bottoming on 03/09/09 (i.e., 65 months ago), the S&P 500 has gained +220% (total return) through the close of trading last Friday, 08/08/14.

The average bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950 has lasted 58 months.

Vantage Point UPDATE: Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Analysis

On Friday, August 8, the S&P 500 closed @ 1932, and that was...
  
   +4.7% ABOVE its 12-Month moving average which stood @ 1845.
   +3.4% ABOVE its 40-Week moving average which stood @ 1868.
   -1.3% BELOW its 10-Week moving average which stood @ 1958.


Therefore, the INTERMEDIATE-Term trend is NEUTRAL
and the LONG-Term trend is UP.