Monday, June 28, 2010

Post-Massive Bear Market Rallies: Historical vs.The Present



Today's chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today's chart, a 'massive' bear market is defined as a decline of greater than -50%.

Since the Dow's inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than -50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the very recent financial crisis).

Today's chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined -78%. The current Dow rally has followed a path that is fairly similar to that of the Nasdaq rally that began in late 2002 as well as the Dow rally that began in 1942.

It is worth noting that after 300 (plus or minus) trading days the market moved into a trading range/choppy phase that lasted for a year or more.



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