Why This Is More Than Just Your Garden-Variety Recession...

An economy that 33 months after a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its sustenance suggest that this isn't your garden-variety recession.

Moreover you know it’s a more than just a typical recession when, 33 months after the onset of recession...

·         Wages & salaries are still down -3.7% from the prior peak;

·         Corporate profits are still down -20% from the peak;

·         Real GDP is still down -1.3% from the peak;

·         Industrial production is still down -7.2% from the peak;

·         Employment is still down -5.5% from the peak;

·         Retail sales are still down -4.5% from the peak;

·         Manufacturing orders are still down -22.1% from the peak;

·         Manufacturing shipments are still down -12.5% from the peak;

·         Exports are still down -9.2% from the peak;

·         Housing starts are still down -63.5% from the peak;

·         New home sales are still down -68.9% from the peak;

·         Existing home sales are still down -41.2% from the peak;

·         Non-residential construction is down -35.7% from the peak.

Unfortunately, in a normal recession-recovery cycle, practically all these indicators are making new highs at this juncture of the business cycle.