Thursday, August 25, 2011

Why Capital Preservation Is Paramount In This Climate...


One of our key indicators turned bearish for stocks in August.

When the 50-day BLUE moving average, is ABOVE the 100-day RED moving average, stocks are in an uptrend and stock market risk is below average.

When the 50-day BLUE moving average, is BELOW the 100-day RED moving average, stocks are in an downtrend and stock market risk is above average.

In the 2nd week of August, the 50-day BLUE moving average, crossed BELOW the 100-day RED moving average, increasing the odds that a new bear market may be at hand.

As a result, we have significantly reduced our stock market exposure in our managed accounts.

Until the
S&P 500's 50-day BLUE moving average crosses ABOVE the 100-day RED moving average again, we will maintain a defensive posture, largely in cash.

Risk is too high and the odds of a severe market decline are too great to do otherwise.


John Harris


No comments:

Post a Comment