Are We Headed for A Prolonged Japanese Deflationary Slog?

If you look at the progression of the U.S. stock market boom and bust, it's easy to see comparisons to the long deflationary slog experienced by Japan.

What's more, we have a similar monetary structure (our own currency, with mostly domestically-owned, domestically denominated debt), and we're facing a similar crisis (too much private sector debt).

The Treasury market shows it as well.

The spread between current Treasury yields and yields on Japanese Government Bonds has hit a new multi-decade low.

And beyond that, the progression of the Treasury yield collapse has has gone at a similar pace.

This chart comes from Nomura's Richard Koo, lining up 10-year yields between Japan and the U.S. at the start of each respective crisis.

Bottom Line:

10-year Treasury yields have a lot longer to fall if you think Japan is a good guide.