Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Vanguard's 10-Year Investment Forecast Predicts a +5.7% per Year Real Return


Excerpt:

"Vanguard predicts a most likely case of a +5.7% real annual returns for stocks, but other experts are more cautious.

In his new book, Rational Expectations, William J. Bernstein predicts a +2% real return for large-cap stocks and +3% for small-cap stocks over the next decade.

Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, forecasts a +3% real return over the next decade."


My own opinion is that the future is even more uncertain than the ranges shown in the Vanguard model — especially on the downside.

And as I see it, the world is a less predictable place than ever before.


Read the entire report here...

Vanguard Capital Markets Model: 10-Year Investing Forecast




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